The Shifting Modal Shift

The diagram and table show the predicted modal shift that HS2 Ltd say will occur as a result of HS2 being built. Each date along the bottom was chosen by HS2 Ltd for when they say that is when travel double will have doubled. The other date is the date they made the prediction.

Predicted HS2 Modal shift over time

How the HS2 Ltd predictions for modal shift have varied over time

What’s clear from a graph, is just how much of the shift will be from lower-carbon classic rail, and how little from air.

And as striking is the number of new trips which HS2 say will take place simply because people decide to use their new fast train.

HS2 Modal Shift – When Rail Usage has Doubled, according to HS2 Ltd
Classic Rail New Trips Air Car
(2010 economic case)
57% 27% 8% 8%
(2011 economic case)
65% 22% 6% 7%
(2012 economic case)
65% 24% 3% 8%


2 comments to “The Shifting Modal Shift”
  1. Where will all these new trips come from? How many will be using it as a shuttle to the expanded ‘London Birmingham’ airport? A scheme promoted on the basis of modal shift is really intended to increase airport capacity and more flights! It is the alternative for the 3rd Heathrow runway.

  2. Thanks Penny! Hmmm, so they work so hard on those rocket science number, just to move the a fiver % from air travel?! Such a big deal. It has to be idiotic to feel this is a compelling case. Sorry if I had offense any pro people!! My eye sight is not too good and I might just have missed a digit!

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