Transport demand forecasts – art or science

Review in Transport Xtra of a talk given by Rob Bain.  Unlike other sciences, demand forecasts are based on human factors.  Because of this, said Bain, error margins in transport forecasts would always be large.  Bain discussed in detail information from Australian toll roads about how badly wrong the demand forecasts had been.

This matters because at a presentation last week hosted by Civic Voice, HS2’s Chief Executive, Alison Munro, admitted that if the demand forecasts are changed, the business case for the proposed High Speed link weakens significantly.

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