HS1 appraisal sends a dire warning to HS2

51M on the analysis of HS1:

A government-commissioned report produced by Atkins, Aecom and Frontier Economics, has concluded that the net present value of the benefits of HS1 is £6.7bn with costs of £12.6bn. This means that the net present value of HS1, calculated over a 60 year period is minus £5.9bn. Even when the wider economic benefits are added in, the loss over this period is £4.57bn.

How different from the heady days of 2011 when MPs were talking up the economic benefits of HS1 prior to the decision on whether or not to proceed with HS2. The eye-catching figure quoted by Ministers within the DfT and beyond was that HS1 would generate economic benefits of £10bn. They failed to add that such a figure would be achieved over a period of 60 years.

Now we know, as reality bites, this figure was wildly optimistic. As a consequence, it is safe to say, the high-speed line will cease to be trotted out by supporters of HS2. But, rest assured, Ministers will be given another hold on to your hats statistic to cheer to the rafters, that is until that one falls apart too.

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2 comments on “HS1 appraisal sends a dire warning to HS2
  1. Rt Hon Teresa May may have opened the next Judicial Review on grounds the HS2 Route was and is A Priori. Let people arrange for the Judicial Review after Royal Ascent to change the Route Ministers selected A Priori

    It is time to plan for the post Royal Ascent Judicial Review the Government will not appreciate to claim the Route was A Prioiri and Minister Statement verify this.

    Time to crowd source the people whos petitions did not deliver the outcomes required.

    Time to claim in the period of 6 weeks you challenge the petition decisions about the damage and and adverse outcomes which do not come into effect now with blght but there is a suspension period until Royal Ascent. This is against the princioles of the Human Rights and Natural Jusice of not being able to challenge by a process suspension. Time for these points to be made in law.

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